Sunriver Q4 2012 final numbers

We did end up with the best quarter in 5 years with 43 homes sold for a total value of $18,190,161 and 59 total transactions including condo, timeshares and land totaling $20,744,178.  The average price of a home sold was at $424K and the average price per soft was $181.79.  Home sold at an average of 95% of list price.

So far Q1 2013 has about $5 million on books for this quarter, we also only have 87 homes on the market, last year we had 106 at this point.  I do think the inventory is going to be a bit smaller this year and it looks like prices are going to go up a bit.  Only time will tell what is going to happens as the political turmoil in Washington continues to make everyone uneasy.

On the bright side, we have lots of snow and the weather has been cold and clear and the skiing is GREAT.

Sunriver Real Estate Q4 2012 update

The good news is Sunriver has put together a great comeback year.  You have to go back 5 years to Q4 2007 before you have a higher volume quarter than Q4 2012.  In Q4 2007 Sunriver had 29 homes sell at an average price of $670,558.  There were 5 homes in those numbers that were over $1 million and the lowest price home sold was $385,000, it was a 3 bedroom 2 bath home on Lupine.  The total value of homes sold was over $19 million.  Q2 2008 had $15 million in home sales and Q4 2009 had $14 million.

This current quarter which is not yet finished has 38 sold homes so far and an average value of $424,500 for a total dollar value of over $16 million.  There was 1 home sold over $1 million and the lowest priced home was $187,500, it was a 3 bedroom 2 bath home on Timber.  

The average price per sqft in Q4 2007 was $294, the average in Q4 2012 is $181.  That is a average reduction of 38%.  The good news in all this is that the average price per sqft for all of 2012 is also $181.  That gives us a solid feeling that priced have bottomed and were stable all year.  Based on the current sales volumes it seems a lot of people believe that is true as they have been buying homes like 2006-7.

The other thing worth mentioning is that Sunriver dropped to below 100 homes on the market a few days ago, this is the first time in at least 3-4 years it has been that low in the winter season.   There are only 6 of the 99 homes that are short sales and there are 2 short sale under contract.

On the "not so good side" interest rates are starting to creep up and I am being told by the mortgage lenders that higher rates are coming.  It may only be a .25 to .5 increase, but they are letting us know that they have also bottomed and are starting to rise.

The big question on everyones mind is what is going to happen to prices in 2013.  That is a really hard question as our current political/ fiscal environment is in such flux.  If the country does what it needs to do it will likely cost all of us more money out of our pockets and have a tendency to keep home prices low.  Central Oregon has already seen a good recovery in our numbers, much of that has been the result of most of the short sales and bank owned properties have sold, so the average prices are starting to go back up to something more normal.  I believe that we will see upward movement in the average price of a home sold in Sunriver in 2013.  I think the primary reason is going to be that most of the desperate sellers, short sales and bank owned properties are gone and most of the low end sellers that wanted to sell have sold.  Homes selling for under $250K made up almost 25% ( 33) of the homes sold in 2012.  There are currently only 8 on the market.  We will have to wait until we are a few months into 2013 before we will know what kind of year we are going to have.

Other than that, let me wish you all a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.

BTW, it is going to be a VERY WHITE Christmas in Sunriver this year.

John

Sunriver Real Estate Q3 2012

We did have a great summer season.  Sunriver had 61 closed real estate transaction compared to Q3 2011 total of 49 transactions.  The total dollar value in Q3 2012 was $16.2 million compared to $13.8 million in Q3 2011.   Of those transaction 40 of them were homes compared to 25 in Q3 2011, a 60% increase.   The average price per sqft of a home sold in Q3 2012 was $177, compared to $187 a year ago.

We are bouncing along the bottom price wise with the average price of a home sold this quarter at $342K.  I still do not expect to see much upward price movement until the economy gets much stronger.  The continuing low interest costs are having a strong positive effect on sales.  The thing that is changing is our inventory of homes for sale is shrinking, if this continues we will start to see prices go up.

As of now 10/17/12 we already have 41 transactions on the books for Q4, representing over $14 million in transactions.  We are on track for  great Q4 2012.

We currently have 125 homes on the market, 27 condos, and 17 lots.

It is quite clear that the addition of the SHARC and the beautiful upgrades to the Village have had very positive impact on Sunriver real estate.

Thanks, John.

Sunriver Real Estate Q2 2012 quarterly update

Sunriver had a great real estate quarter for Q2 2012.  We sold 36 homes in Sunriver this quarter compared to 26 homes sold in Q2 2011.  That was a 42% increase in Sales dollars for the quarter.  Over all including all types of properties Sunriver had 43 transactions and sold a total dollar value of $14,645,628 compared to Q2 2011 which had a volume of $11,434,675.

The average price of  home sold increased only slightly this year over last year from $374K to $384K and the sales price as percentage of list price remained the same at 95%.

The inventory of homes available for sale is down over 25% from last year with only 152 homes currently on the market in Sunriver.  Price continues to be the motivating factor as over 50% of the homes sold were under $325K.  The good news is that mortgage rates have continued to stay very low and currently are showing no sign that they will be going up anytime soon.

We currently have over $6 million on the books for Q3 2012 as pending transactions.   That is a great start for the quarter, but we will need to do over $13.3 million to exceed Q3 2011.

Q1 2012 Sunriver Real estate update

Sunriver closed out 2011 with a strong 4th quarter.  It was the best quarter of the year for sales volume.  We are clearly in a sweet spot for the opportunistic buyers with market prices and interest rate the lowest they have been in years.  The traffic of buyers has been steady all winter and the quantity of transaction on the book for Q1 2012 shows that many of the buyers are buying.  We currently have 20 closed transactions on the books for Q1 with a total of $5.24 million in volume and we have another 14 transactions pending which will convert to approximately $5.5 million in volume.  While the average price of a transaction is down from last year we will most likely exceed Q1 2011's total sales volume because we have more traffic and more of them are buyers.

We currently have 106 homes on the market in Sunriver.  I do expect to see that number increase to 140- 150 by mid Spring and to approach 180-200 over the peak of the Summer.  The excitement around the opening of the new SHARC aquatic center has fueled much of the new buyer enthusiasm.  We are expecting a great summer season, come and check it out.

Thank you, John

Sunriver Real Estate - Q4 2011 Update

We are a couple of days from the end of the quarter and the end of the year.  In my article in for the December issue of the Sunriver Scene I forecast that we would sell 25 homes for a dollar value of $10.9 million in the 4th Quarter.  As of today we are at 23 homes and $10.25 million, that compares to 22 homes sold and $8.3 million in the same quarter a year ago.  It is possible that we could see a couple of more homes close this week and hit my number, but we will know for sure in couple of days.   The total for the quarter was $11.9 million compared to $10 million for the same quarter a year ago.

The other piece of good news is the average price of a home sold in the 4th quarter was $445K this year and $378K last year.  The price per sqft was down to $183 from $190 last year.  The good new is we are seeing buyers spend more money on average as the deals got better this year.

I will have a complete update with all the final numbers for the quarter in a couple of weeks.

Hope you all had a great Christmas and have a happy new year.  I really do think we are going to see the real estate market in Sunriver improve this year.

Thanks, John.

Sunriver Real Estate - Q3 2011 final numbers

The Summer season has ended in Sunriver.  We had a very good 3^rd quarter in real estate.  Q2 2011 produced $11.4 million in transactions, Q3 2011 produced $13.8 million in transactions.  That represents a 21% increase in dollar volume from Q2 to Q3.  The other really good piece of news is that we have 20 transactions on the books for Q4 totaling an estimated $8.4 million of carry over from Q3 2011.

     Of the 49 transactions in Q3 2011 25 of them were homes.  The average price per sqft was down from the $193 last quarter to $187, but the average percentage of sales price remained the same at 93%.  We did have one home that sold for very close to $1 million this quarter and we have several pending sales for Q4 that are in the high 6 figures.  This return of the high-end buyer should start to improve our average home values if the trend continues.

     It was very clear that the continuing improvements in the Village, the now completed 4 lane freeway from Bend to Sunriver and the buzz surrounding the SHARC have helped sell real estate this year.  With the SHARC opening next year I am confident we are going to see this trend continue.  The Sunriver owners have continued to invest in the community during some of the most difficult times we have seen in this country in recent years.  When we do see a turn in this economy as a community we are going to have one of the fastest recoveries.

Thanks, John