We currently have 19 homes and condos either sold or pending so far this quarter. 15 of them are homes, we sold 21 homes last quarter so it looks like we have a good chance to see an up tick in volume this quarter. The current average sales price is $348k compared to last quarters $400k. It is still early in the quarter and we have time to see that number improve. The buyer traffic has picked up some, but we usually don't see a big jump until after tax season is over.
Saturday, April 16, 2011
Tuesday, April 5, 2011
Sunriver Real Estate 1st Quarter 2011 Final numbers
Well ladies and gentlemen we did it, we broke the downward slide, after 5 straight down quarters, Q1 2011 was just slightly better than Q4 2010 in home sales and the average price was up from $375K to $400K. We closed 21 home transactions for a total of $8.4 million in volume. If you read my latest article in the Sunriver Scene at the middle of March I forecasted a volume of $7.5 Million and 19 homes for Q1. I am glad to say I was low. The total for the quarter was $9.233 million if you include land, condo and shared owner sales.
We have a carry over of $4.5 million in pending sales which should close in Q2 2011. Based on the pick up in traffic and the volume of new listing coming on the market I believe that Q2 will be even stronger that Q1 was. The new listings are also coming on the market at very realistic prices, so it would seem that sellers understand that you have to be priced to sell in this market or you are still going to own it next year.
The new buyers all seem to be very excited about the new aquatic center and I do think it is starting to create some energy in the market place. When you drive by it on Beaver and see how big a project it is, it is exciting. The weather is starting to show some signs of Sun and the golf courses are starting to green up so come to Sunriver and buy something. The home inventory is up to 140 homes, I still expect it to grow to well over 200 by mid summer.
Thanks,
John.
We have a carry over of $4.5 million in pending sales which should close in Q2 2011. Based on the pick up in traffic and the volume of new listing coming on the market I believe that Q2 will be even stronger that Q1 was. The new listings are also coming on the market at very realistic prices, so it would seem that sellers understand that you have to be priced to sell in this market or you are still going to own it next year.
The new buyers all seem to be very excited about the new aquatic center and I do think it is starting to create some energy in the market place. When you drive by it on Beaver and see how big a project it is, it is exciting. The weather is starting to show some signs of Sun and the golf courses are starting to green up so come to Sunriver and buy something. The home inventory is up to 140 homes, I still expect it to grow to well over 200 by mid summer.
Thanks,
John.
Monday, February 28, 2011
Sunriver Real Estate 1st Quarter 2011 update
We are now 2 months into the new year. The activity level has picked up significantly in February and we have gone from 13 properties under contract at the end of January to 28 at the end of February. We have gone from 0 closed transactions to 8 closed transactions. Assuming we could close all the the currently pending transaction this quarter we would come in at about $9.7 million in volume for the quarter. That is of course not very likely, we will most likely come in around $6-7 Million. The homes that have sold and closed so far this year are running at 95% of sales price and $170 per sqft. I do not expect these number to hold and I think our market is more in the $180-200 per sqft range once the quarters numbers are all in.
The inventory in Sunriver is at the lowest point ( 116 homes) of the year right now and we will start to see a large number of new listings coming on the market over the next few months. I believe we are going to see a good selling season this year as the economy continues to improve and unemployment inches lower.
If you have any questions about buying, selling, listing, renting or just have a question don't hesitate to call me or send email.
John Watkins
jdw48@mac.com
541-390-3600
The inventory in Sunriver is at the lowest point ( 116 homes) of the year right now and we will start to see a large number of new listings coming on the market over the next few months. I believe we are going to see a good selling season this year as the economy continues to improve and unemployment inches lower.
If you have any questions about buying, selling, listing, renting or just have a question don't hesitate to call me or send email.
John Watkins
jdw48@mac.com
541-390-3600
Thursday, February 3, 2011
Sunriver Q1 2011 update
Real estate in Sunriver has been slow through most of January 2011. We currently have 13 homes under contract and 2 homes sold so far this year. That gives us approximately $5.5 million in volume with an average sales price of $369,000. We are running at $185 per sqft and about 330 days on the market. The first quarter of 2010 we closed 27 homes at an average sales price of $471,000 for a little over $12 million in volume.
The buyer traffic has picked up dramatically in the last 2 weeks and most of the broker's I talk to have had the same experience. Our inventory of homes is always at its lowest point in January with only 125 homes on the market. I do expect to see a large number of listings come on the market over the next few months.
If you are thinking about listing now is the time to get started and if you are a buyer, keep your eyes open and check the internet often as we should see a lot of new inventory over the next 3 months. I do believe we are at the bottom of this market and this is a great time to buy.
John Watkins
Principal Broker
Bennington Properties
jdw48@me.com
541-390-3600
The buyer traffic has picked up dramatically in the last 2 weeks and most of the broker's I talk to have had the same experience. Our inventory of homes is always at its lowest point in January with only 125 homes on the market. I do expect to see a large number of listings come on the market over the next few months.
If you are thinking about listing now is the time to get started and if you are a buyer, keep your eyes open and check the internet often as we should see a lot of new inventory over the next 3 months. I do believe we are at the bottom of this market and this is a great time to buy.
John Watkins
Principal Broker
Bennington Properties
jdw48@me.com
541-390-3600
Friday, January 7, 2011
Sunriver 2010 real estate sales summary data
This is going to be a lot of numbers data which I really like to look at because it gives me a much clearer picture of what is happening in the marketplace. First here is a summary chart by quarter of the sales data for homes sold in Sunriver for the period from 2008 through 2010. Please remember that the averages are based only on the homes that sold.
| Q1 08 | Q2 08 | Q3 08 | Q4 08 | |
| # Homes | 11 | 26 | 17 | 18 |
| $ Volume | $6,773,700 | $15,519,790 | $10,674,470 | $12,318,500 |
| Average SP | $615,791 | $596,915 | $627,910 | $684,361 |
| DOM | 166 | 195 | 195 | 199 |
| per sqft | $300 | $268 | $261 | $260 |
| % of SP | 97% | 90% | 94% | 90% |
| Q1 09 | Q2 09 | Q3 09 | Q4 09 | |
| # Homes | 18 | 14 | 16 | 32 |
| $ Volume | $9,166,752 | $5,674,998 | $7,401,296 | $14,446,112 |
| Average SP | $509,264 | $405,357 | $462,581 | $451,441 |
| DOM | 287 | 317 | 242 | 305 |
| per sqft | $226 | $229 | $220 | $222 |
| % of SP | 92% | 92% | 93% | 93% |
| Q1 10 | Q2 10 | Q3 10 | Q4 10 | |
| # Homes | 27 | 20 | 23 | 22 |
| $ Volume | $12,714,516 | $10,710,100 | $10,155,489 | $8,330,498 |
| Average SP | $470,908 | $535,505 | $441,543 | $378,659 |
| DOM | 387 | 234 | 189 | 333 |
| per sqft | $199 | $211 | $203 | $190 |
| % of SP | 92% | 94% | 95% | 93% |
The year 2010 ended with a big drop off in sales volume for Q4 compared to early quarters in 2010 and a big drop in volume from the Q4 2009 numbers. The Q4 2010 DOM was way up as we saw a number of homes that had been on the market over a year finally sell ( 8 of 22 had been on the market over 1 year & 4 of them over 2 years), but this moved the DOM of homes sold up significantly from the previous quarter. If you look at he annual data for the last 4 years 2010 feels much better.
| Year | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |
| # Homes | 143 | 72 | 80 | 92 |
| Total $ Volume | $91,195,962 | $45,286,460 | $36,689,158 | $41,910,603 |
| Average SP | $637,734 | $628,979 | $458,614 | $455,550 |
| DOM | 158 | 188.75 | 287.75 | 285.75 |
| per sqft | $287 | $272 | $224 | $201 |
| % of SP | 96% | 93% | 93% | 94% |
When viewed this way 2010 shows a marked improvement over 2009 with more sales transactions, higher $ volume of homes sold. What has continued to decline is the price per sqft. and average Sales Price.
As the economy continues to improve in 2011 I do believe we will continue to see sales activity increase and more people feeling comfortable about buying and owning a second home/vacation rental. Remember 10,000 baby boomers are turning 65 every day and we have one of the best places in the country to retire if you are healthy and active.
Another good indicator for 2011 is that the Case-Shiller Housing index on price to income for housing is down from 1.65 in 2007 to 1.06 in 2010. We have almost returned to 1 which is where it should be, and if we can see some personal income gains in 2011 we just might get there.
Email me if you have any questions about this data.
Thursday, November 18, 2010
Mid 4th Quarter 2010 Sunriver Real Estate Update
The 4th quarter has turned out to be a bit slower than I expected. I had forecast $11.25 million in sales volume and it does not look like we are going to get there. Sunriver currently has Pending sales of 2 condos, 9 homes and 1 lot, and sold properties 4 condos, 12 homes and 1 lot. Assuming all this business closes before 12/31/10 the total sales volume will be just over $9 million. We could do better than that but I am not counting it.
Buyers are clearly being very careful in this market. The resort real estate market has been very slow now for over 2 years. With the election behind us and hopefully the worst of the economy issues we are looking forward to next year showing some needed improvement in this market.
We are still benefiting from extremely low interest rates and a large inventory of homes to choose from. Caldera Springs has seen several of its more expensive homes sell recently and we continue to see new homes going up as the cost of money and construction are very favorable.
Happy holidays to everyone.
Questions please give me a call or send me and email
John Watkins
jdw48@mac.com
541-390-3600
Buyers are clearly being very careful in this market. The resort real estate market has been very slow now for over 2 years. With the election behind us and hopefully the worst of the economy issues we are looking forward to next year showing some needed improvement in this market.
We are still benefiting from extremely low interest rates and a large inventory of homes to choose from. Caldera Springs has seen several of its more expensive homes sell recently and we continue to see new homes going up as the cost of money and construction are very favorable.
Happy holidays to everyone.
Questions please give me a call or send me and email
John Watkins
jdw48@mac.com
541-390-3600
Thursday, November 11, 2010
November Sunriver Scene Article
I wrote this article for the Sunriver Scene about 3 weeks ago. I have re published it here in case you did not see it.
"I spent most of my career as a CPA and CFO, so I have a great love of financialnumbers and the story they can tell us. Unfortunately it is now quite clear that all the political rhetoric and public funds have not succeeded in giving us a quick recovery from the latest recession. Certainly some segments of the economy are starting to show some upward trends and the government has declared that the recession ended last summer as GDP turned positive. The reality of it for most of us is that real estate and unemployment are the factors that most affect our day to day lives and they have yet to show any serious signs of improvement. If you were smart enough to let you 401K ride out the recession you are most likely about half way back to where you were before the crash. On the other hand if you held on to all your real estate you are pretty much still at the bottom wondering when things start to improve. It is quite clear we are still grinding through the bottoming process in real estate. I do believe we have bottomed out and I am confident that 2011 will bring some stability to our market.
Below is a chart of data from the last 3 years of homes sold in Sunriver. I have estimated Q4 2010 numbers based on the carryover from Q3 2010 and from the current momentum in our market. Three things are worth noting in the numbers: first – the days on market moved down in 2010 to something more reasonable ( 200+ days). Second –Sales price per sqft has been somewhat stable this year in the $200 range. Third – the percentage of sales price has improved in the last 2 quarters (92% to 95%). All of these would tend to indicate that we have reached a somewhat stable bottom and that our homes are closer to being priced correctly. These are clearly signs that we are at thebottom. and our home values should be stabilizing.
| Homes Sold | Q1 08 | Q2 08 | Q3 08 | Q4 08 |
| # Homes | 11 | 26 | 17 | 18 |
| $ Volume | $6,773,700 | $15,519,790 | $10,674,470 | $12,318,500 |
| Average SP | $615,791 | $596,915 | $627,910 | $684,361 |
| DOM | 166 | 195 | 195 | 199 |
| per sqft | $300 | $268 | $261 | $260 |
| % of SP | 97% | 90% | 94% | 90% |
| | Q1 09 | Q2 09 | Q3 09 | Q4 09 |
| # Homes | 18 | 14 | 16 | 32 |
| $ Volume | $9,166,752 | $5,674,998 | $7,401,296 | $14,446,112 |
| Average SP | $509,264 | $405,357 | $462,581 | $451,441 |
| DOM | 287 | 317 | 242 | 305 |
| per sqft | $226 | $229 | $220 | $222 |
| % of SP | 92% | 92% | 93% | 93% |
| | Q1 10 | Q2 10 | Q3 10 | Q4 10- EST |
| # Homes | 27 | 20 | 23 | 25 |
| $ Volume | $12,714,516 | $10,710,100 | $10,155,489 | $11,250,000 |
| Average SP | $470,908 | $535,505 | $441,543 | $450,000 |
| DOM | 387 | 234 | 189 | 225 |
| per sqft | $199 | $211 | $203 | $205 |
| % of SP | 92% | 94% | 95% | 95% |
Sunriver as a community has made a very strong statement in the last two years by voting to increase the monthly dues to build up a financial reserve and by voting to fund a new pool and community center to keep us competitive in the resort market for years to come. We are and will continue to be the largest and most successful resort community in Central Oregon. Our courage to invest in our community in the middle of this recession will bode well for us and our real estate investment when the economy
returns to more normal levels."
Please contact me if you have any questions about this article or if there is anything I can
help you with.
John Watkins, Broker
Bennington Properties
Sunriver, Oregon.
Jdw48@mac.com
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