The 4th quarter has turned out to be a bit slower than I expected. I had forecast $11.25 million in sales volume and it does not look like we are going to get there. Sunriver currently has Pending sales of 2 condos, 9 homes and 1 lot, and sold properties 4 condos, 12 homes and 1 lot. Assuming all this business closes before 12/31/10 the total sales volume will be just over $9 million. We could do better than that but I am not counting it.
Buyers are clearly being very careful in this market. The resort real estate market has been very slow now for over 2 years. With the election behind us and hopefully the worst of the economy issues we are looking forward to next year showing some needed improvement in this market.
We are still benefiting from extremely low interest rates and a large inventory of homes to choose from. Caldera Springs has seen several of its more expensive homes sell recently and we continue to see new homes going up as the cost of money and construction are very favorable.
Happy holidays to everyone.
Questions please give me a call or send me and email
John Watkins
jdw48@mac.com
541-390-3600
Thursday, November 18, 2010
Thursday, November 11, 2010
November Sunriver Scene Article
I wrote this article for the Sunriver Scene about 3 weeks ago. I have re published it here in case you did not see it.
"I spent most of my career as a CPA and CFO, so I have a great love of financialnumbers and the story they can tell us. Unfortunately it is now quite clear that all the political rhetoric and public funds have not succeeded in giving us a quick recovery from the latest recession. Certainly some segments of the economy are starting to show some upward trends and the government has declared that the recession ended last summer as GDP turned positive. The reality of it for most of us is that real estate and unemployment are the factors that most affect our day to day lives and they have yet to show any serious signs of improvement. If you were smart enough to let you 401K ride out the recession you are most likely about half way back to where you were before the crash. On the other hand if you held on to all your real estate you are pretty much still at the bottom wondering when things start to improve. It is quite clear we are still grinding through the bottoming process in real estate. I do believe we have bottomed out and I am confident that 2011 will bring some stability to our market.
Below is a chart of data from the last 3 years of homes sold in Sunriver. I have estimated Q4 2010 numbers based on the carryover from Q3 2010 and from the current momentum in our market. Three things are worth noting in the numbers: first – the days on market moved down in 2010 to something more reasonable ( 200+ days). Second –Sales price per sqft has been somewhat stable this year in the $200 range. Third – the percentage of sales price has improved in the last 2 quarters (92% to 95%). All of these would tend to indicate that we have reached a somewhat stable bottom and that our homes are closer to being priced correctly. These are clearly signs that we are at thebottom. and our home values should be stabilizing.
| Homes Sold | Q1 08 | Q2 08 | Q3 08 | Q4 08 |
| # Homes | 11 | 26 | 17 | 18 |
| $ Volume | $6,773,700 | $15,519,790 | $10,674,470 | $12,318,500 |
| Average SP | $615,791 | $596,915 | $627,910 | $684,361 |
| DOM | 166 | 195 | 195 | 199 |
| per sqft | $300 | $268 | $261 | $260 |
| % of SP | 97% | 90% | 94% | 90% |
| | Q1 09 | Q2 09 | Q3 09 | Q4 09 |
| # Homes | 18 | 14 | 16 | 32 |
| $ Volume | $9,166,752 | $5,674,998 | $7,401,296 | $14,446,112 |
| Average SP | $509,264 | $405,357 | $462,581 | $451,441 |
| DOM | 287 | 317 | 242 | 305 |
| per sqft | $226 | $229 | $220 | $222 |
| % of SP | 92% | 92% | 93% | 93% |
| | Q1 10 | Q2 10 | Q3 10 | Q4 10- EST |
| # Homes | 27 | 20 | 23 | 25 |
| $ Volume | $12,714,516 | $10,710,100 | $10,155,489 | $11,250,000 |
| Average SP | $470,908 | $535,505 | $441,543 | $450,000 |
| DOM | 387 | 234 | 189 | 225 |
| per sqft | $199 | $211 | $203 | $205 |
| % of SP | 92% | 94% | 95% | 95% |
Sunriver as a community has made a very strong statement in the last two years by voting to increase the monthly dues to build up a financial reserve and by voting to fund a new pool and community center to keep us competitive in the resort market for years to come. We are and will continue to be the largest and most successful resort community in Central Oregon. Our courage to invest in our community in the middle of this recession will bode well for us and our real estate investment when the economy
returns to more normal levels."
Please contact me if you have any questions about this article or if there is anything I can
help you with.
John Watkins, Broker
Bennington Properties
Sunriver, Oregon.
Jdw48@mac.com Wednesday, October 6, 2010
3rd Quarter 2010 Final Sunriver Real Estate Sales numbers
First lets get the numbers on the table for Sunriver. We closed 31 transactions ( homes, condos, land, shared ownership) in the 3rd quarter 2010 for a total sales volume $10.82 million. The good news is that this was a small improvement over the 3rd quarter last year of last year which came in at $10.3 million. The bad news is that the 3rd quarter 2010 sales total was the 3rd straight quarterly decline in sales volume from the $16.6 million 4th quarter of 2009. Q1 2010 was $13.7 million, Q2 2010 was $12.9 million and then Q3 2010 came in at $10.8 million. A more typical year would have gone the other direction as we usually see most of our business happen in the 3rd quarter. We have 17 transactions totaling $5.3 million currently pending for the 4th quarter which does give us a good start, we also still have close to 200 homes on the market to choose from. I doubt we are going to match the $16.6 million we did in the 4th quarter of last year.
Our market is clearly grinding its way through the bottoming process and most of the data would indicate that we are going to see more of the same through the winter months this year and early next year. Extremely low interest rates and prices have helped convince many buyers over the last year that it is a good time to buy something in Sunriver, but they continue to be very price motivated buyers.
Caldera Springs had a good quarter with one home sale and 8 lots sales in the 3rd quarter and has 3 lot sales pending and 1 home sale pending for the 4th quarter. There are a number of new custom homes under construction and the lot sales are a good indicator for the future of Caldera Springs. Caldera will soon be offering a new cabin product in the $400K range which should bring in some new interest to the cabins.
If you have any questions or specific requests please contact me.
Thank you,
John Watkins
541-390-3600
jdw48@mac.com
Sunday, August 15, 2010
Sunriver Real Estate 3rd Quarter progress Report!!!
First I would like to say thank you to the Sunriver Owners for supporting the new Aquatic Center. I strongly believe that this addition to Sunriver along with the continued updating of the Sunriver Village will add significant value to Sunriver real estate in the years to come. I think the timing is perfect for these key improvements as I also believe we are at the bottom of the real estate problem in our area.
Now here is the data, so far the 3rd Quarter of 2010 is not an improvement over 2009 or the 2nd quarter of 2010. Lets hope that with all this good news that the buyer's return to make this quarter the best of the year. At the mid point of Q3 2009 we had closed 9 homes with and average price of $363k, currently we have closed 8 homes with an average price $352K for the 3rd quarter of 2010. Q3 2009 had a total of 27 closed transaction for a total of $10.3 million in volume. Q3 2010 currently has 8 closed deals and 16 pending deals for a current potential of $9.1 million in Volume. I think we will do better than that and come very close to topping last year.
Caldera has 5 pending lot sales and 2 closed lot sales. The pricing is very disappointing as it ranges between $119k to $199K. Caldera has 2 pending home sales and Crosswater has 1 pending home sale.
We still have a great inventory of product with 226 homes and 56 condos for sales in Sunriver and 15 homes and 33 lots for sale in Caldera. We also have fantastic interest rates still available.
Please call me if you have any questions on this data or you have any real estate needs that I can help you with.
John
541-390-3600
jdw48@mac.com
Now here is the data, so far the 3rd Quarter of 2010 is not an improvement over 2009 or the 2nd quarter of 2010. Lets hope that with all this good news that the buyer's return to make this quarter the best of the year. At the mid point of Q3 2009 we had closed 9 homes with and average price of $363k, currently we have closed 8 homes with an average price $352K for the 3rd quarter of 2010. Q3 2009 had a total of 27 closed transaction for a total of $10.3 million in volume. Q3 2010 currently has 8 closed deals and 16 pending deals for a current potential of $9.1 million in Volume. I think we will do better than that and come very close to topping last year.
Caldera has 5 pending lot sales and 2 closed lot sales. The pricing is very disappointing as it ranges between $119k to $199K. Caldera has 2 pending home sales and Crosswater has 1 pending home sale.
We still have a great inventory of product with 226 homes and 56 condos for sales in Sunriver and 15 homes and 33 lots for sale in Caldera. We also have fantastic interest rates still available.
Please call me if you have any questions on this data or you have any real estate needs that I can help you with.
John
541-390-3600
jdw48@mac.com
Friday, July 2, 2010
Sunriver Real Estate 2nd Quarter Final Numbers!!!
This is going to be a lot of numbers. We closed 35 transactions in the 2nd quarter for a total sales volume of $12,928,086. This number was 700K lower than the 1st quarter of 2010. With prices continuing to decline and the number of homes on the market increasing sharply to a current number of 224 I was surprised we did not see more sales. The good news is Summer has finally arrived and the traffic of buyers is way up. We only have 11 pending deals rolling over into the 3rd quarter, but they do total $5 million in volume and the average price is up over $100k from last quarter. The selling price as a percentage of listing price has held around 93% for about a year.
Q3 2009 had only 27 transactions and a total volume of $10.2 million, so the good new is we have a good start on beating the Q3 numbers for this year. Sunriver is booked up heavy for the next couple of months and with interest rates still holding at record lows we should see an up tick in buyer traffic over the next few months. The high end buyers still seem to be on the sidelines as we have not had a sale over 875K this quarter.
Caldera and Crosswater have not seen much activity this quarter. Caldera sold 3 lots and 1 home and Crosswater had 1 lot sale. Caldera continues to have a steady stream of new construction by existing lot owners and we do think that now with much more aggressive pricing that we will see some of the existing home inventory in Caldera sell this Summer.
For those of you that are already owners in Sunriver I do hope you will support the new pool and rec center vote. I strongly believe that it will have a very positive effect on the future values of Sunriver real estate and help bring people back to Sunriver as they see we are investing in our community. I own 3 homes in Sunriver and I will be voting yes.
Please call me if you have any questions on this data.
John
541-390-3600
jdw48@mac.com
Q3 2009 had only 27 transactions and a total volume of $10.2 million, so the good new is we have a good start on beating the Q3 numbers for this year. Sunriver is booked up heavy for the next couple of months and with interest rates still holding at record lows we should see an up tick in buyer traffic over the next few months. The high end buyers still seem to be on the sidelines as we have not had a sale over 875K this quarter.
Caldera and Crosswater have not seen much activity this quarter. Caldera sold 3 lots and 1 home and Crosswater had 1 lot sale. Caldera continues to have a steady stream of new construction by existing lot owners and we do think that now with much more aggressive pricing that we will see some of the existing home inventory in Caldera sell this Summer.
For those of you that are already owners in Sunriver I do hope you will support the new pool and rec center vote. I strongly believe that it will have a very positive effect on the future values of Sunriver real estate and help bring people back to Sunriver as they see we are investing in our community. I own 3 homes in Sunriver and I will be voting yes.
Please call me if you have any questions on this data.
John
541-390-3600
jdw48@mac.com
Tuesday, June 1, 2010
Sunriver Real Estate 2/3 through the Quarter 2010 update.
The good news is we are way ahead of last year, the bad news is we are not going to match the Q1 2010 numbers. In the last 2 weeks we have only added 2 new deals to this quarter and closed 5 pending deals. The buyer traffic has been very slow over the last 30 days. This is somewhat typical as people are waiting for summer at this point. Our inventory of homes for sale has shot up over the last several weeks to 206 homes and I still expect it to continue on up to around 230. We do have people shopping this market, but as a client of mine told me over the weekend " there is almost too much to see, it is hard to make a decision".
The summer season is coming fast and soon we will be in the busy season. With interest rates continuing to stay below 5% and the economy in slow recovery we are hopeful that this summer will prove to be good for all of us.
The summer season is coming fast and soon we will be in the busy season. With interest rates continuing to stay below 5% and the economy in slow recovery we are hopeful that this summer will prove to be good for all of us.
Sunday, May 16, 2010
Sunriver Real Estate Mid-2nd Quarter 2010 update.
We have now closed 18 sales this quarter and have a total of $6.6 million of Q2 2010 volume. We have already exceeded last years 2nd quarter numbers. We currently have 13 pending sales for a total of $5.3 million that could close this quarter, which would put us close to $12 million for Q2 2010. What is interesting is that Q1 2010 looks like it is going to have been stronger than Q2 unless thing pick up quickly. Sales have slowed a little in the last 3-4 week as the traffic to Sunriver has been down. Now that the golf courses are open and the sun and good weather will soon be here we expect the buyer traffic to pick up significantly.
Two weeks ago we had 167 homes on the market in Sunriver, we now have 185. I suspect we will be over 200 homes on the market by the first week of June.
With a great selection of homes to choose from and interest rates still extremely low we should continue to see a growing number of sales this year.
Sunday, May 2, 2010
Sunriver Real Estate 2nd Quarter 2010 update.
We have 13 closed sales for the month of April for a total of $4.6 million. We have 14 pending sales totaling $6.6 million that should easily close by the end of the quarter. We still have 2 more month to go in this quarter and my expectation is that we will most likely do over $12-14 million in volume for Q2. In 2009 we closed 19 transaction for a $ value of 6.3 Million. We will easily increase volume by 100% this quarter over last year.
Sunriver currently has 167 homes on the market, 38 condo, and 14 lots. I had expected that number to be higher and I do expect it to increase to over 200+ homes by mid summer. The good new for buyers is that most of the sellers are pricing there homes to sell in this market.
Sales have continued to be slow in Caldera. There has been one home sale and one pending cabin sale this quarter and one lot sale and 3 pending. Caldera is however seeing new construction of custom homes. Many people who bought in Caldera are going forward with building. Caldera's experiencing more building than any resort in Central Oregon. There are a number of extremely well priced homes for sale in Caldera, truly something to consider if you are currently looking.
Please give me a call if you have any question about this information.
John Watkins
541-390-3600
jdw48@mac.com
Saturday, April 3, 2010
Sunriver Real Estate 1st Quarter Final Numbers!!!
Three weeks ago when I finished and submitted my Sunriver Scene article for the month of April I forecast that we would have 25 closed deals and $12.25 million in sales for the first quarter. Well I was way short, we closed 32 deals for a total volume of $13.7 million for the quarter which gave us a 100% increase over last years number of $6.7 million.
The good new continues as we have 14 pending deals already for Q2 2010 totaling $6.16 million. This number is already almost equal to the $6.8 million we did in Q2 of 2009, so it looks like we are going to continue to blow away the quarter over quarter numbers for Sunriver.
We have moved up from around 130 homes on the market at the end of the year to about 160 currently. I do expect to see a continued increase in the number of homes listed as we move through the second quarter. With the Fed getting out of the mortgage buying business I do expect to see interest rates rise about 1/2 a point over the next month or so, but homes are still at bargain prices in Sunriver.
The good new continues as we have 14 pending deals already for Q2 2010 totaling $6.16 million. This number is already almost equal to the $6.8 million we did in Q2 of 2009, so it looks like we are going to continue to blow away the quarter over quarter numbers for Sunriver.
We have moved up from around 130 homes on the market at the end of the year to about 160 currently. I do expect to see a continued increase in the number of homes listed as we move through the second quarter. With the Fed getting out of the mortgage buying business I do expect to see interest rates rise about 1/2 a point over the next month or so, but homes are still at bargain prices in Sunriver.
Tuesday, March 2, 2010
Sunriver Real Estate 1st Quarter update
We are 2 months into the first quarter of 2010 and we are having a great quarter. We have closed 21 transactions in Sunriver for a total of $9.47million. The average price per home was $451K and the % of average sales price was 93%. We have 13 pending transactions on the books that could still close this quarter giving us the potential to do as much as $15.3 million this quarter. Last year we closed 20 transaction for a total of $9.55 million. Buyers are taking advantage of the low interest rates and a good selection of nicely priced homes currently available.
The activity in Caldera and Crosswater has also picked up. Crosswater has one bank owned property pending and Caldera has 2 sold lots and one pending and 1 cabin pending and 1 home sold. The showing volume and interest in both areas has picked up significantly.
We are still expecting to see a large number of new listing come on the market in the coming months and everyone assumes we will see some upward pressure on interest rates by the end of the summer.
Send me your questions and comments.
John
The activity in Caldera and Crosswater has also picked up. Crosswater has one bank owned property pending and Caldera has 2 sold lots and one pending and 1 cabin pending and 1 home sold. The showing volume and interest in both areas has picked up significantly.
We are still expecting to see a large number of new listing come on the market in the coming months and everyone assumes we will see some upward pressure on interest rates by the end of the summer.
Send me your questions and comments.
John
Thursday, February 18, 2010
Sunriver Real Estate mid Quarter update - Q1 2010
Great news, we are halfway through the first quarter of 2010 and we have 28 deals on the books. 14 are closed with $ volume of $5.78 million and 14 pending deals with a $ volume of $6.132 million assuming they close at 93% of list price. If they all close this quarter that will give us $12 million in volume and a 30% increase in volume over 1st quarter of last year.
Interest rates are still low and the number of homes on the market in Sunriver is still around 130. We do expect to see a large number of homes come on the market in the next few months.
My next update will be in two weeks. Please contact me if you have any questions.
Saturday, January 30, 2010
Q1 2010 Sunriver Quarterly update
It clearly feels like prices have bottomed in the Sunriver area and the buyers know it and are starting to look much more seriously. Pricing is still the key as the buyers are clearly focused on value and cost per square foot. The inventory is down to 129 homes from a high last summer of 230. Most brokers in the area feel that we will see a large number of new listing in the next few months and we will most likely return to over 200 homes on the market by early summer. With the large number of homes on the market I do not believe we will see prices begin to move up anytime soon.
In Q4 09 we started to see a return of the buyers to the Sunriver market. As you can see from my previous blog update on the final numbers for Q4, the numbers for Q4 09 showed a significant improvement over Q4 08 both in quantity of transactions and dollar volume of transactions. Q1 10 also benefited from a strong Q4 with a significant carry-over of pending deals.
Q1 10 Sunriver currently has 6 closed deal and 16 pending deals for an estimated $ volume of $9.288 million. Thats a great start to the quarter and we are only 31 days in. Q1 09 had 20 closed transactions for a $ volume of $9.55 million, so it looks like we are on track to beat last years Q1 numbers.
Crosswater and Caldera had some activity in Q4 09 with 1 lot sale in Caldera, 1 cabin and 2 homes. Crosswater had 2 home sales. Currently in Q1 10 there is one pending sale in Caldera so far this quarter compared to 2 cabins and 1 home sale in Q1 09.
Please feel free to contact me if you have any questions about this data.
John.
Tuesday, January 5, 2010
Sunriver Real Estate Q4 2009 - Final
We had a great quarter in Sunriver with the best numbers in over 2 years!!! Closed 42 transactions for a total of $16.625 million in volume. This is just homes and does not include condo's, shared ownership or land sales. Last year in Q4 we did just over $14 million with 27 transactions so this quarter was clearly the turning point up from the bottom of this cycle. We still have 160+ homes on the market and with the economy improving we expect to see a lot of new listings coming on in the spring of 2010.
With interest rate still around 5% if you were thinking about making a move now is the time!!!
Q1 10 is also starting strong and will most likely eclipse Q1 10's numbers of $9.1 million and 18 transactions as we already have 13 pending deals totaling over $6 million.
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