Sunriver Real Estate - Q4 2011 Update

We are a couple of days from the end of the quarter and the end of the year.  In my article in for the December issue of the Sunriver Scene I forecast that we would sell 25 homes for a dollar value of $10.9 million in the 4th Quarter.  As of today we are at 23 homes and $10.25 million, that compares to 22 homes sold and $8.3 million in the same quarter a year ago.  It is possible that we could see a couple of more homes close this week and hit my number, but we will know for sure in couple of days.   The total for the quarter was $11.9 million compared to $10 million for the same quarter a year ago.

The other piece of good news is the average price of a home sold in the 4th quarter was $445K this year and $378K last year.  The price per sqft was down to $183 from $190 last year.  The good new is we are seeing buyers spend more money on average as the deals got better this year.

I will have a complete update with all the final numbers for the quarter in a couple of weeks.

Hope you all had a great Christmas and have a happy new year.  I really do think we are going to see the real estate market in Sunriver improve this year.

Thanks, John.

Sunriver Real Estate - Q3 2011 final numbers

The Summer season has ended in Sunriver.  We had a very good 3^rd quarter in real estate.  Q2 2011 produced $11.4 million in transactions, Q3 2011 produced $13.8 million in transactions.  That represents a 21% increase in dollar volume from Q2 to Q3.  The other really good piece of news is that we have 20 transactions on the books for Q4 totaling an estimated $8.4 million of carry over from Q3 2011.

     Of the 49 transactions in Q3 2011 25 of them were homes.  The average price per sqft was down from the $193 last quarter to $187, but the average percentage of sales price remained the same at 93%.  We did have one home that sold for very close to $1 million this quarter and we have several pending sales for Q4 that are in the high 6 figures.  This return of the high-end buyer should start to improve our average home values if the trend continues.

     It was very clear that the continuing improvements in the Village, the now completed 4 lane freeway from Bend to Sunriver and the buzz surrounding the SHARC have helped sell real estate this year.  With the SHARC opening next year I am confident we are going to see this trend continue.  The Sunriver owners have continued to invest in the community during some of the most difficult times we have seen in this country in recent years.  When we do see a turn in this economy as a community we are going to have one of the fastest recoveries.

Thanks, John

Sunriver Real Estate - Q3 update

     We are 2 months into the 3rd quarter of 2011.  August turned out to be busy and very productive.  We doubled the number of deals on the books for this quarter from 26 a month ago to 52 today.  The majority of the increase was also in home sales as we increased from 13 homes on the books to 34 homes.  Assuming we closed all 52 deals before the end of the quarter we would have a volume of a little over $15 million for the quarter for all product (homes, condos, shared ownership, land).  If we close all the homes on the books by the end of the quarter we would have a volume of approximately $12.5 million.  This would be over a 25% increase over Q2 2011 and an equally significant 25% increase over Q3 2010. This would also make the 3rd consecutive increase in quarterly sales for Sunriver.
     It does seem clear that the combination of record low prices, record low interest rates, the soon to be completed new SHARC center, continuing improvements in the Village and the 4 lane freeway from Bend have got the attention of the buyers.  Sunriver is making significant improvements to the quality of the "Sunriver Experience" and people have taken notice.
     The other thing to take note of is the amount of construction that is going on in Caldera Springs.  We also have 2 home sales and 4 lots sales on the books for this quarter.
     Rumors are flying that the SHARC center may have some facilities open as early as the first of the year.  We are all getting very excited.

Thanks, John
   

Sunriver Q3 2011 Real Estate Update

We are 1 month in the 3rd quarter of 2011.  It has felt very busy so far this quarter and the weather has finally turned to perfection.  We have 26 deals on the books for the quarter so far, for a total of approximately $7 million of transaction value.  There are 13 homes and 12  condo’s & timeshares and 1 lot.

The stats on the 13 homes are as follows, days on the market are down to around 130 from 193 last quarter and 242 last year.  If that holds up that is big.  Price per sqft is right at $192, exactly what it was last quarter, another indication that we may be at the bottom of this cycle.  Average sales price is up around $400k, last quarter was $373K.  We are still very early in the quarter, but I do believe we will show an improvement over last quarter and hopefully an improvement over the 3rd quarter which is going to take selling 28-30 homes this quarter.

If you have been in Sunriver recently you have seen how fast the new aquatic center is going up.  It is really creating a buzz and I feel strongly that it is helping us sell property.  They are giving tours on the weekends, you can sign up on the SROA website.  The place is going to be amazing.

Questions, comments, send me an email

Thanks, John

Sunriver Real Estate - Q2 2011 final numbers

    One month ago we had 35 transactions on the books ( sold and Pending) for the quarter.  We ended up closing 35 transaction in Q2 2011 for a total $ volume of $11,435, 710.  This was a nice up-tick from Q1 numbers, which was an up-tick from Q4 2010 numbers.  Maybe we have something going here.  We sold 26 homes in Q2 2011 at an average of $373K.  The good news was a significant drop in the days on the market to 192.  This is reflected by both the increased sales and a smaller inventory.
     The high end of the market continues to be very slow as the most expensive home sold in Sunriver in Q2 2011 was $641K.  We have some fantastic homes on the market in the $800K to $1 million range.  I will be very surprised if we don't see some action there this year.
     Sunriver is very busy right now and Bennington Properties rentals are having the best year they have had since 2008.   There does seem to be a lot of buyers in the market for Sunriver homes and I am assuming that Q3 2011 is going to be yet another improving quarter for sales volume.  We have 19 deals on the books, (sold or pending) as of July 10, 2011 for a total of over $5 million in volume.  Thats only 10 days into the quarter!!
     The new aquatic center (S.H.A.R.K.) is going up at light speed and is really creating a buzz.  It looks like it really will be on time for a Memorial Day 2012 opening.   I wrote the real estate article for the Sunriver Scene for August, watch for it, it has complete charts and data for the last 3 years by quarter.

Thanks, John.

Sunriver Real Estate Late Quarter update - Q2 2011

     We are 2 months into the second quarter of 2011.  We have 35 transactions on the books for this quarter so far ( 23 closed sales and 12 pending sales).  26 of these are homes and 9 are Condo’s, timeshares and one hangar space.  We are tracking toward closing 35-40 transactions this quarter and close to $10 million in home volume, with another $2-2.5 million in condo’s and other product for a total of around $12 million in total transaction volume for the quarter.  We are going to come in a little behind last years numbers, primarily because the average price of a home sold this year is down substantially from last year.   This is because last year the lowest priced home sold in the quarter was $300K, this year we have 7 homes sold or pending under $300k.  Also last year we had 5 homes sold over $640K, this quarter we have none.
     On the good news side we are seeing marketing times moving down (Q4 10 was 333 DOM, Q1 11 was 309 DOM, Q2 11 is currently 221 DOM).  The other interesting factor is we have 157 homes on the market as of  today, at the middle of July last year we had 240 homes on the market.  I do believe we are not going to get that high this summer which should help the market.  If you have a Condo listed, we are also seeing much more interest in that product this year than we did last year.  This is really the season when Condo’s start to see some activity.
     May has been a weather challenged month in Central Oregon with more wet cold weather than we normally see, this may have contributed to sales not picking up more.  School is getting out earlier this year than last and that should give us a faster start to the Summer season.   Bennington Properties had 80% of there homes booked for Memorial Day weekend and we did have lots of buyer traffic this weekend.  I do believe that the new aquatic center is creating a big buzz and it will really help Sunriver.

Questions, comments please contact me.

Looking forward to a great Summer.

Thanks, John.

Sunriver Real Estate mid Quarter update - Q2 2011

     In the second quarter of 2010 Sunriver closed 36 transactions (homes, condos, land) for a total dollar value of $13.3 million.  Of those transactions 20 of them were homes, 14 were condos and the were 2 lot sales.  At this mid point of the second quarter of 2011 we have 30 transactions on the books (sold or pending) 22 homes and 8 condos.  If we close 100% of these transactions before the end of the quarter the dollar value of these transactions will be approximately $10 million.  The average price of a home sold this quarter is running about $375K compared to $535K last year in the second quarter.  Average days on the market is almost the same around 230 and average price per square foot is $195 vs $211 last year.  We are selling more smaller homes this year compared to last year.

     I do think we have a good chance to match last years numbers for the second quarter, but we are going to have to sell about 20% more homes to do it.  The buyer traffic is picking up, but they are very careful and most know exactly what they want and they are unwilling to compromise as they clearly feel they have time.  One very interesting factor is that we only have 150 homes on the market currently.  Last year by mid summer we had 240, I think there is a good possibility that we have seen most the panic sellers and we may not get up anywhere close to that number of homes on the market this year.

If you have any question or comments please contact me.

John.

Sunriver Real Estate Q2 2011 update

We have come to the end of the first month of the second quarter of 2011. The second half of April has not brought much activity to the Sunriver market. With tax time and the Easter weekend behind us we are finally looking forward to some good weather and the return of the buyers to this market. It is clear that interest rates are not going to be going up in any significant way anytime soon. The combination of a large inventory, low Interest rates, and prices that are down 38% from the top of the market in 2007 should help bring in the buyers.

We currently have 21 transactions on the books for this quarter (15 homes, 6 condos). Q2 last year we sold 20 homes, we have 15 on the books 1 month into this quarter so we have an excellent change of selling more homes this quarter. We are seeing the average price of a home sold this year is down about $80k from the same period last year. Smaller homes in good locations are the hottest sellers in the market currently. We do have a number of larger beautiful properties on the market at prices that should start to attract the high end buyers.

If you have not been to Sunriver recently the new aquatic center is really taking shape. I will have some pictures up on the blog in a few days ( need some sunshine).

Questions, comments, give me a call

John

Sunriver Real Estate Early Q2 2011 Update

We currently have 19 homes and condos either sold or pending so far this quarter. 15 of them are homes, we sold 21 homes last quarter so it looks like we have a good chance to see an up tick in volume this quarter. The current average sales price is $348k compared to last quarters $400k. It is still early in the quarter and we have time to see that number improve. The buyer traffic has picked up some, but we usually don't see a big jump until after tax season is over.

Sunriver Real Estate 1st Quarter 2011 Final numbers

     Well ladies and gentlemen we did it, we broke the downward slide, after 5 straight down quarters, Q1 2011 was just slightly better than Q4 2010 in home sales and the average price was up from $375K to $400K.  We closed 21 home transactions for a total of $8.4 million in volume.  If you read my latest article in the Sunriver Scene at the middle of March I forecasted a volume of $7.5 Million and 19 homes for Q1.  I am glad to say I was low.  The total for the quarter was $9.233 million if you include land, condo and shared owner sales.

     We have a carry over of $4.5 million in pending sales which should close in Q2 2011.  Based on the pick up in traffic  and the volume of new listing coming on the market I believe that Q2 will be even stronger that Q1 was.  The new listings are also coming on the market at very realistic prices, so it would seem that sellers understand that you have to be priced to sell in this market or you are still going to own it next year.

     The new buyers all seem to be very excited about the new aquatic center and I do think it is starting to create some energy in the market place.  When you drive by it on Beaver and see how big a project it is, it is exciting.   The weather is starting to show some signs of Sun and the golf courses are starting to green up  so come to Sunriver and buy something.   The home inventory is up to 140 homes, I still expect it to grow to well over 200 by mid summer.

Thanks,

John.

Sunriver Real Estate 1st Quarter 2011 update

We are now 2 months into the new year.  The activity level has picked up significantly in February and we have gone from 13 properties under contract at the end of January to 28 at the end of February.  We have gone from 0 closed transactions to 8 closed transactions.  Assuming we could close all the the currently pending transaction this quarter we would come in at about $9.7 million in volume for the quarter.  That is of course not very likely, we will most likely come in around $6-7 Million.   The homes that have sold and closed so far this year are running at 95% of sales price and $170 per sqft.  I do not expect these number to hold and I think our market is more in the $180-200 per sqft range once the quarters numbers are all in.

The inventory in Sunriver is at the lowest point ( 116 homes) of the year right now and we will start to see a large number of new listings coming on the market over the next few months.  I believe we are going to see a good selling season this year as the economy continues to improve and unemployment inches lower.

If you have any questions about buying, selling, listing, renting or just have a question don't hesitate to call me or send email.

John Watkins
jdw48@mac.com
541-390-3600

Sunriver Q1 2011 update

Real estate in Sunriver has been slow through most of January 2011.  We currently have 13 homes under contract and 2 homes sold so far this year.  That gives us approximately $5.5 million in volume  with an average sales price of $369,000.  We are running at $185 per sqft and about 330 days on the market.  The first quarter of 2010 we closed 27 homes at an average sales price of $471,000 for a little over $12 million in volume.

The buyer traffic has picked up dramatically in the last 2 weeks and most of the broker's I talk to have had the same experience.  Our inventory of homes is always at its lowest point in January with only 125 homes on the market.  I do expect to see a large number of listings come on the market over the next few months.

If you are thinking about listing now is the time to get started and if you are a buyer, keep your eyes open and check the internet often as we should see a lot of new inventory over the next 3 months.  I do believe we are at the bottom of this market and this is a great time to buy.

John Watkins
Principal Broker
Bennington Properties
jdw48@me.com
541-390-3600

Sunriver 2010 real estate sales summary data

This is going to be a lot of numbers data which I really like to look at because it gives me a much clearer picture of what is happening in the marketplace.  First here is a summary chart by quarter of the sales data for homes sold in Sunriver for the period from 2008 through 2010.  Please remember that the averages are based only on the homes that sold.

	Q1 08	Q2 08	Q3 08	Q4 08
# Homes	11	26	17	18
$ Volume	$6,773,700	$15,519,790	$10,674,470	$12,318,500
Average SP	$615,791	$596,915	$627,910	$684,361
DOM	166	195	195	199
per sqft	$300	$268	$261	$260
% of SP	97%	90%	94%	90%
	Q1 09	Q2 09	Q3 09	Q4 09
# Homes	18	14	16	32
$ Volume	$9,166,752	$5,674,998	$7,401,296	$14,446,112
Average SP	$509,264	$405,357	$462,581	$451,441
DOM	287	317	242	305
per sqft	$226	$229	$220	$222
% of SP	92%	92%	93%	93%
	Q1 10	Q2 10	Q3 10	Q4 10
# Homes	27	20	23	22
$ Volume	$12,714,516	$10,710,100	$10,155,489	$8,330,498
Average SP	$470,908	$535,505	$441,543	$378,659
DOM	387	234	189	333
per sqft	$199	$211	$203	$190
% of SP	92%	94%	95%	93%

The year 2010 ended with a big drop off in sales volume for Q4 compared to early quarters in 2010 and a big drop in volume from the Q4 2009 numbers.  The Q4 2010 DOM was way up as we saw a number of homes that had been on the market over a year finally sell ( 8 of 22 had been on the market over 1 year & 4 of them over 2 years), but this moved the DOM of homes sold up significantly from the previous quarter.  If you look at he annual data for the last 4 years 2010 feels much better.

Year	2007	2008	2009	2010
# Homes	143	72	80	92
Total $ Volume	$91,195,962	$45,286,460	$36,689,158	$41,910,603
Average SP	$637,734	$628,979	$458,614	$455,550
DOM	158	188.75	287.75	285.75
per sqft	$287	$272	$224	$201
% of SP	96%	93%	93%	94%

When viewed this way 2010 shows a marked improvement over 2009 with more sales transactions, higher $ volume of homes sold.  What has continued to decline is the price per sqft. and average Sales Price.

As the economy continues to improve in 2011 I do believe we will continue to see sales activity increase and more people feeling comfortable about buying and owning a second home/vacation rental.  Remember 10,000 baby boomers are turning 65 every day and we have one of the best places in the country to retire if you are healthy and active.

Another good indicator for 2011 is that the Case-Shiller Housing index on price to income for housing is down from 1.65 in 2007 to 1.06 in 2010.  We have almost returned to 1 which is where it should be, and if we can see some personal income gains in 2011 we just might get there.

Email me if you have any questions about this data.