The 4th quarter has turned out to be a bit slower than I expected. I had forecast $11.25 million in sales volume and it does not look like we are going to get there. Sunriver currently has Pending sales of 2 condos, 9 homes and 1 lot, and sold properties 4 condos, 12 homes and 1 lot. Assuming all this business closes before 12/31/10 the total sales volume will be just over $9 million. We could do better than that but I am not counting it.
Buyers are clearly being very careful in this market. The resort real estate market has been very slow now for over 2 years. With the election behind us and hopefully the worst of the economy issues we are looking forward to next year showing some needed improvement in this market.
We are still benefiting from extremely low interest rates and a large inventory of homes to choose from. Caldera Springs has seen several of its more expensive homes sell recently and we continue to see new homes going up as the cost of money and construction are very favorable.
Happy holidays to everyone.
Questions please give me a call or send me and email
John Watkins
jdw48@mac.com
541-390-3600
Thursday, November 18, 2010
Thursday, November 11, 2010
November Sunriver Scene Article
I wrote this article for the Sunriver Scene about 3 weeks ago. I have re published it here in case you did not see it.
"I spent most of my career as a CPA and CFO, so I have a great love of financialnumbers and the story they can tell us. Unfortunately it is now quite clear that all the political rhetoric and public funds have not succeeded in giving us a quick recovery from the latest recession. Certainly some segments of the economy are starting to show some upward trends and the government has declared that the recession ended last summer as GDP turned positive. The reality of it for most of us is that real estate and unemployment are the factors that most affect our day to day lives and they have yet to show any serious signs of improvement. If you were smart enough to let you 401K ride out the recession you are most likely about half way back to where you were before the crash. On the other hand if you held on to all your real estate you are pretty much still at the bottom wondering when things start to improve. It is quite clear we are still grinding through the bottoming process in real estate. I do believe we have bottomed out and I am confident that 2011 will bring some stability to our market.
Below is a chart of data from the last 3 years of homes sold in Sunriver. I have estimated Q4 2010 numbers based on the carryover from Q3 2010 and from the current momentum in our market. Three things are worth noting in the numbers: first – the days on market moved down in 2010 to something more reasonable ( 200+ days). Second –Sales price per sqft has been somewhat stable this year in the $200 range. Third – the percentage of sales price has improved in the last 2 quarters (92% to 95%). All of these would tend to indicate that we have reached a somewhat stable bottom and that our homes are closer to being priced correctly. These are clearly signs that we are at thebottom. and our home values should be stabilizing.
| Homes Sold | Q1 08 | Q2 08 | Q3 08 | Q4 08 |
| # Homes | 11 | 26 | 17 | 18 |
| $ Volume | $6,773,700 | $15,519,790 | $10,674,470 | $12,318,500 |
| Average SP | $615,791 | $596,915 | $627,910 | $684,361 |
| DOM | 166 | 195 | 195 | 199 |
| per sqft | $300 | $268 | $261 | $260 |
| % of SP | 97% | 90% | 94% | 90% |
| | Q1 09 | Q2 09 | Q3 09 | Q4 09 |
| # Homes | 18 | 14 | 16 | 32 |
| $ Volume | $9,166,752 | $5,674,998 | $7,401,296 | $14,446,112 |
| Average SP | $509,264 | $405,357 | $462,581 | $451,441 |
| DOM | 287 | 317 | 242 | 305 |
| per sqft | $226 | $229 | $220 | $222 |
| % of SP | 92% | 92% | 93% | 93% |
| | Q1 10 | Q2 10 | Q3 10 | Q4 10- EST |
| # Homes | 27 | 20 | 23 | 25 |
| $ Volume | $12,714,516 | $10,710,100 | $10,155,489 | $11,250,000 |
| Average SP | $470,908 | $535,505 | $441,543 | $450,000 |
| DOM | 387 | 234 | 189 | 225 |
| per sqft | $199 | $211 | $203 | $205 |
| % of SP | 92% | 94% | 95% | 95% |
Sunriver as a community has made a very strong statement in the last two years by voting to increase the monthly dues to build up a financial reserve and by voting to fund a new pool and community center to keep us competitive in the resort market for years to come. We are and will continue to be the largest and most successful resort community in Central Oregon. Our courage to invest in our community in the middle of this recession will bode well for us and our real estate investment when the economy
returns to more normal levels."
Please contact me if you have any questions about this article or if there is anything I can
help you with.
John Watkins, Broker
Bennington Properties
Sunriver, Oregon.
Jdw48@mac.com
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
